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Sally is coming to visit.

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  • Sally is coming to visit.

    Gulf Coast under the gun once again. Sally is on her way to spoil a few days for some of us. They are projecting a cat 1 hurricane. Will hope that prodition holds. The gulf is hot and Sally will slow down about the time it gets south of us. Looks like we will be on the slap side (east side) of the landfall so we will feel the brunt of what winds and rains are coming. Depending on how much it slows. Estement on the rain run from 6 in to 15 in plus for Mobile. Our Louisiana and Mississippi carvers will also take a hit if the live near enough to the coast. That much rain and 70mph winds will do a job on number of the trees and the power lines they land on. Surge is not a issure for our house . We are preparing for a week or two of now power. Thats almost a sure thing if it comes in as it is projected to. Just about every yard in our area has two or more big oaks. A good number of power trucks from here are still working to help with the last storm in Louisiana a few weeks ago. I will check in as power allows. Still better than the Fires you all in the west are having to deal with.
    Today is the 41 adversary of hurricane Frederick coming to Mobile, one of the big ones. Very grateful we are not looking at 130 mph + winds. I hope!!
    We live in the land of the free because of the brave! Semper Fi
    https://www.pinterest.com/carvingbarn0363/

  • #2
    I'll keep you in my prayers. Sounds like you got a positive outlook, livin life on life terms. Take care.
    Jim

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    • #3
      Got our fingers crossed for you Randy. All you can do is, get as prepared as you can, don't take any unnecessary chances and hope for the best.
      Wayne
      If you're looking for me, you'll find me in a pile of wood chips somewhere...

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      • #4
        Thank you for your good wishes Jim and Wayne. What a difference a few hours can make. Now it looks like we are out of the cone. Sally moving south and making landfall further west. Not so good for our Louisiana carvers. It could change again by this afternoon. We are still in for some heave rain but If the changes hold there should not be the wind threat we were looking at.
        We live in the land of the free because of the brave! Semper Fi
        https://www.pinterest.com/carvingbarn0363/

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        • #5
          I will be on the west side of Sally (her good side), so we should be okay. No worries about flooding for me.
          Arthur

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          • #6
            Lots of wind and rain. She passed by even further away than anticipated, Some localized flooding from the rain. Possibly even more from tidal surge and extra high tides but Tampa Bay dodged another one. I can't keep but from wondering how long we can keep it up.

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            • #7
              One thing about hurricanes coming.....is trying not to eat all the hurricane snacks and goodies you bought for preparedness time. The worst thing about the hurricane is The cone is designed to enclose 2/3 of the historical track forecast errors... meaning that on average, there is still a 1/3 probability that the center of the storm could track outside of the cone. Some scenarios in nature are inherently less predictable than others. So I am always stuffed full of expensive chocolate ice cream way before the sucker hits.
              . Explore! Dream! Discover!” aloha Di

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Eddy-Smiles View Post
                Lots of wind and rain. She passed by even further away than anticipated, Some localized flooding from the rain. Possibly even more from tidal surge and extra high tides but Tampa Bay dodged another one. I can't keep but from wondering how long we can keep it up.
                I understand Eddy. We have have not seen a large storm sense Katrina. And that’s ok with me. I am getting to old for this stuff.
                We live in the land of the free because of the brave! Semper Fi
                https://www.pinterest.com/carvingbarn0363/

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Randy View Post
                  Thank you for your good wishes Jim and Wayne. What a difference a few hours can make. Now it looks like we are out of the cone. Sally moving south and making landfall further west. Not so good for our Louisiana carvers. It could change again by this afternoon. We are still in for some heave rain but If the changes hold there should not be the wind threat we were looking at.
                  This is just in by a top weather prediction meteorologist, ...which is noted to be followed by most meterologist.....looks like west winds may push the hurricane more your way.... so heads up. By Levi Cowan of TropicalTidbits. The meteorologist groups follow these guys notes...here with our predictions, as he knows his stuff. Here is his latest post....

                  There is extra uncertainty on the east side of #Sally's forecast cone. West winds aloft at landfall will be slowing Sally down, and a right turn near the coast cannot be ruled out. The Mobile, AL region is outside the cone, but don't assume Sally's core won't impact you.
                  The other forecasting difficulty here is #Sally's landfall timing. Sally is expected to slow down, a lot, near the coast. This makes it difficult to know how long Sally will have over water to strengthen. More time = stronger. Regardless, slow also means lots of rain & flooding.


                  Last edited by DiLeon; 09-13-2020, 01:07 PM.
                  . Explore! Dream! Discover!” aloha Di

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                  • #10
                    Two days ago, they predicted it would pass right over top of us. Then, yesterday the prediction shifted to the East and the center would pass over Slidell. Today, the prediction is it will pass directly over us here in Ponchatoula, but downgraded to Tropical Storm as it goes over us... We are as prepared as we can be - generator, water, lots of food (hope my beer lasts ) We aren't too worried about flooding, as we are above flood plain and didn't get flooded when Isaac came ashore just West of us in 2012 and then traveled very slowly North - got 15-20 inches of rain from that one. Randy, you take care - on the East side is lots of rain and wind. Arthur, take care also - I hope the North side of I-12 doesn't flood again...

                    Claude
                    My FaceBook Page: https://www.facebook.com/ClaudesWoodCarving/
                    My Pinterest Page: https://www.pinterest.com/cfreaner/
                    My Instagram Page: https://www.instagram.com/claudeswoodcarving/
                    My ETSY Shop: https://www.etsy.com/shop/ClaudesWoodcarving

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                    • #11
                      I just hope hungering down will get you guys through this one
                      . . .JoeB

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Claude View Post
                        Two days ago, they predicted it would pass right over top of us. Then, yesterday the prediction shifted to the East and the center would pass over Slidell. Today, the prediction is it will pass directly over us here in Ponchatoula, but downgraded to Tropical Storm as it goes over us... We are as prepared as we can be - generator, water, lots of food (hope my beer lasts ) We aren't too worried about flooding, as we are above flood plain and didn't get flooded when Isaac came ashore just West of us in 2012 and then traveled very slowly North - got 15-20 inches of rain from that one. Randy, you take care - on the East side is lots of rain and wind. Arthur, take care also - I hope the North side of I-12 doesn't flood again...

                        Claude
                        Thanks Claude. Pop a top for me. Looks like rain and storms will be our part of Sally. They are guessing 8 to 12 inches. We have only had 42 inches so far this year. We are down 6 inches for the year. It will catch us up. How ever all at once is a bit much. :-). We will know how bad it was on Wednesday.
                        We live in the land of the free because of the brave! Semper Fi
                        https://www.pinterest.com/carvingbarn0363/

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                        • #13
                          New predictions in rainfall...up to 20 plus depending on where she goes. Everyone be careful.
                          . Explore! Dream! Discover!” aloha Di

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Dileon View Post
                            New predictions in rainfall...up to 20 plus depending on where she goes. Everyone be careful.
                            Guesses are up to 15 inches in Mobile county. In 1997 Cat 1 hurricane Danny rain fall varied from between 30 to 40 inches on the Mobile area. Most of it in less than 12 hrs.
                            We live in the land of the free because of the brave! Semper Fi
                            https://www.pinterest.com/carvingbarn0363/

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Randy View Post

                              Guesses are up to 15 inches in Mobile county. In 1997 Cat 1 hurricane Danny rain fall varied from between 30 to 40 inches on the Mobile area. Most of it in less than 12 hrs.
                              Randy new track is shifting your way toward the east, ...plus she is now a Cat 2 and in good condition to go to a Cat 3. Right now the eye is west from you, but if the track changes again she may hit you full on. Hope you got the place locked down. I will be listening to this one from the Mobile area Iheart radio later. Stay safe!!! Looks like the NAM supercomputer is one right on the tracking of this one. And Levi right again about the darn thing being pushed east.
                              Last edited by DiLeon; 09-14-2020, 05:56 PM.
                              . Explore! Dream! Discover!” aloha Di

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