Sally is coming to visit.

[Randy]

Wind is picking up 20 25 mph Sustained. Rain bands not bad yet. Only about 13/4 so far today. Heavy rain will start in a few hours. Storm moving more East with each update, so far. We could be on the west side by the time it comes a shore but will most likely still have 15+inches of rain and heavy winds. Power outages already in the south part of the county. Good chance we will loose power by tonight. Depending on what trees fall where. My wife’s office is in down town Mobile. If the surge stays at 5 to 7 ft. They could have a foot or so of water in the building. With surge and runoff from heavy rain. Katrina had a 11+ foot surge plus high tide and rain they had 7 ft of water in her office. Soggy carpets.

[Claude]

Most of Louisiana is to the West of the storm and it looks, so far, as if it won't affect us. Randy, as he has said, is going to get hammered with the wind and rain. Our St. Barnard Parish, which is East of the M. River, was already getting lots of storm surge yesterday, and is getting more as the storm continues - the NE winds are pushing the gulf water up into Lake Borgne. If it shifts more to the East, the Florida area around Pensacola and Destin will get it even worse. And, latest report this morning says it's now stalled and barely moving...

[Mark N. Akers]

Prayers go out to anyone in her path,be safe and we hope she will turn around and go back were she came from.

[Randy]

Well at moving 3 miles an hour and arrival time getting pushed back....hopeful the track keeps on moving east and will miss you altogether. That is what I am hoping for, this is part that drains a person the wait and sees????....drags on and on and on. Prayers coming your way although.

Thanks for the good thoughts Di. Having been though these things for the last 30 + year I have learned to do all the prep I can and then try to stay busy doing something to enjoy the rest of the day. I turn the TV off or watch a move. Checking on the storm when a update is scheduled. I have friends that sit watching hour after hour all the this could happen Weather channel hacks. If you are as ready as you can be and help you neighbors then nothing els to do about it until it happens. In a few weeks it will be a bad memory. Until the next one. Just life on the gulf coast.

[DiLeon]

We are going to get slapped pretty good by Sally. Mobile itself is about 45 miles north of the gulf. We are looking at 85 to 100 mph winds and 15 to 20 + inches of rain. But things are changing with every advisory. Move East again at the 10 pm guess. Putting us in the middle of the cone now. We have done all we can. Now it’s just riding this pony until it stops bucking.

Well at moving 3 miles an hour and arrival time getting pushed back....hopeful the track keeps on moving east and will miss you altogether. That is what I am hoping for, this is part that drains a person the wait and sees????....drags on and on and on. Prayers coming your way although.

[Randy]

Randy new track is shifting your way toward the east, ...plus she is now a Cat 2 and in good condition to go to a Cat 3. Right now the eye is west from you, but if the track changes again she may hit you full on. Hope you got the place locked down. I will be listening to this one from the Mobile area Iheart radio later. Stay safe!!! Looks like the NAM supercomputer is one right on the tracking of this one. And Levi right again about the darn thing being pushed east.

We are going to get slapped pretty good by Sally. Mobile it self is about 45 miles north of the gulf. We are looking at 85 to 100 mph winds and 15 to 20 + inches of rain. But things are changing with every advisory. Move East again at the 10 pm guess. Putting use in the middle of the cone now. We have done all we can. Now it’s just riding this pony until it stops bucking.

[DiLeon]

Guesses are up to 15 inches in Mobile county. In 1997 Cat 1 hurricane Danny rain fall varied from between 30 to 40 inches on the Mobile area. Most of it in less than 12 hrs.

Randy new track is shifting your way toward the east, ...plus she is now a Cat 2 and in good condition to go to a Cat 3. Right now the eye is west from you, but if the track changes again she may hit you full on. Hope you got the place locked down. I will be listening to this one from the Mobile area Iheart radio later. Stay safe!!! Looks like the NAM supercomputer is one right on the tracking of this one. And Levi right again about the darn thing being pushed east.

[Randy]

New predictions in rainfall...up to 20 plus depending on where she goes. Everyone be careful.

Guesses are up to 15 inches in Mobile county. In 1997 Cat 1 hurricane Danny rain fall varied from between 30 to 40 inches on the Mobile area. Most of it in less than 12 hrs.

[DiLeon]

New predictions in rainfall...up to 20 plus depending on where she goes. Everyone be careful.

[Randy]

Two days ago, they predicted it would pass right over top of us. Then, yesterday the prediction shifted to the East and the center would pass over Slidell. Today, the prediction is it will pass directly over us here in Ponchatoula, but downgraded to Tropical Storm as it goes over us... We are as prepared as we can be - generator, water, lots of food (hope my beer lasts ) We aren't too worried about flooding, as we are above flood plain and didn't get flooded when Isaac came ashore just West of us in 2012 and then traveled very slowly North - got 15-20 inches of rain from that one. Randy, you take care - on the East side is lots of rain and wind. Arthur, take care also - I hope the North side of I-12 doesn't flood again...

Claude

Thanks Claude. Pop a top for me. Looks like rain and storms will be our part of Sally. They are guessing 8 to 12 inches. We have only had 42 inches so far this year. We are down 6 inches for the year. It will catch us up. How ever all at once is a bit much. :-). We will know how bad it was on Wednesday.

[joepaulbutler]

I just hope hungering down will get you guys through this one

[Claude]

Two days ago, they predicted it would pass right over top of us. Then, yesterday the prediction shifted to the East and the center would pass over Slidell. Today, the prediction is it will pass directly over us here in Ponchatoula, but downgraded to Tropical Storm as it goes over us... We are as prepared as we can be - generator, water, lots of food (hope my beer lasts ) We aren't too worried about flooding, as we are above flood plain and didn't get flooded when Isaac came ashore just West of us in 2012 and then traveled very slowly North - got 15-20 inches of rain from that one. Randy, you take care - on the East side is lots of rain and wind. Arthur, take care also - I hope the North side of I-12 doesn't flood again...

Claude

[DiLeon]

Thank you for your good wishes Jim and Wayne. What a difference a few hours can make. Now it looks like we are out of the cone. Sally moving south and making landfall further west. Not so good for our Louisiana carvers. It could change again by this afternoon. We are still in for some heave rain but If the changes hold there should not be the wind threat we were looking at.

This is just in by a top weather prediction meteorologist, ...which is noted to be followed by most meterologist.....looks like west winds may push the hurricane more your way.... so heads up. By Levi Cowan of TropicalTidbits. The meteorologist groups follow these guys notes...here with our predictions, as he knows his stuff. Here is his latest post....

There is extra uncertainty on the east side of #Sally's forecast cone. West winds aloft at landfall will be slowing Sally down, and a right turn near the coast cannot be ruled out. The Mobile, AL region is outside the cone, but don't assume Sally's core won't impact you.
The other forecasting difficulty here is #Sally's landfall timing. Sally is expected to slow down, a lot, near the coast. This makes it difficult to know how long Sally will have over water to strengthen. More time = stronger. Regardless, slow also means lots of rain & flooding.

[Randy]

Lots of wind and rain. She passed by even further away than anticipated, Some localized flooding from the rain. Possibly even more from tidal surge and extra high tides but Tampa Bay dodged another one. I can't keep but from wondering how long we can keep it up.

I understand Eddy. We have have not seen a large storm sense Katrina. And that’s ok with me. I am getting to old for this stuff.

[DiLeon]

One thing about hurricanes coming.....is trying not to eat all the hurricane snacks and goodies you bought for preparedness time. The worst thing about the hurricane is The cone is designed to enclose 2/3 of the historical track forecast errors... meaning that on average, there is still a 1/3 probability that the center of the storm could track outside of the cone. Some scenarios in nature are inherently less predictable than others. So I am always stuffed full of expensive chocolate ice cream way before the sucker hits.